Say It Ain't So...

Recent reports filtering around various new sources claim a deal is in the works that Israel will accept a cease-fire without the disarmament of Hezbollah. Any way that you look at it, this is an unmitigated defeat for Israel and a victory for our enemies. Hezbollah has successfully stood up to mighty Israel and will become heroes to their Islamic comrades. The IDF will lose face and Northern Israel will still be in sight of Hezbollah's rockets.


Cease-fire: Getting It Right
Peter Brookes | August 10, 2006
Any U.N. cease-fire agreement aimed at ending the violence between Israel and Hezbollah is worthless unless it leads to the disarming of the terrorist group. Plain and simple.

Without a demobilization process, we're sure to see a resumption of the current bloody fighting across the Lebanese border -- between the same two parties -- again at some point in the future.

The problem is that, after almost four weeks of fighting, Hezbollah has little motivation to agree to such an end-state. Unfortunately, Hezbollah is feeling pretty darn good about itself these days.

It's no surprise. The relatively puny terrorist group has withstood repeated body blows on the ground and from the air by the mighty Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), the Middle East's most capable conventional military.

Even today, nearly a month after hostilities began with Israel, Hezbollah continues to launch tens -- if not hundreds -- of crude, but deadly, Katyusha rockets into Israeli cities on a daily basis (more than 3,000 to date).

In fact, some military analysts have sheepishly called the war "a stalemate," criticizing Israel's political and military leadership for its campaign strategy -- and for losing the public-relations war through some questionable targeting.

As a result, Hezbollah's leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, has become a veritable rock star in the region and across the Muslim world, thumbing his nose at Israeli intelligence as he hides in a bunker somewhere beneath Lebanon.

Plus, Hezbollah is getting unexpected political support from across the region. It has, of course, the full backing of its puppeteers, Syria and Iran, who have funded, trained and supported the group for years.

But now, Shia Hezbollah, which was initially criticized -- by even its fellow countrymen -- for picking a fight with Israel is beginning to receive support from its long-standing Lebanese rivals such as the Sunni and Christian communities.

And other Arab states that were none too happy with Hezbollah -- and Iran and Syria -- for creating unwanted regional instability, and icing any prospects for progress on the Middle East peace process, have started to quietly rally to Nasrallah's side.

Arguably, Hezbollah is more powerful than at any time since it sent the Israelis packing from Lebanon in 2000. So the question is: Why would it give up that hard-fought clout now by demobilizing?

Sure, Hezbollah could get completely out of the terrorist and militia business and throw its newfound heft fully into politics. It already holds 14 seats in the Lebanese parliament and two cabinet posts in the government.

Riding a wave of unprecedented popularity from the war, it certainly could pick up more seats in the 128-seat parliament in the next election -- perhaps even win enough to run the Lebanese central government.

Indeed, Hezbollah's militia -- consisting of 2,000-4,000 well-trained guerilla fighters -- could become the new backbone of a reinvigorated Lebanese army, capable of providing for the country's sovereignty and national defense.

But the sad fact is that such a peaceful transition is unlikely. In its own eyes -- and that of its sponsors in Tehran and Damascus -- Hezbollah is nothing if it isn't a well-armed anti-American, anti-Israeli resistance group.

Unless there is a significant Israeli military breakthrough in the conflict, such as cutting short the reign of Nasrallah, breaking Hezbollah's resolve (and that of its outside supporters) is going to be tough.

So while a U.N. cease-fire to end the ongoing hostilities and suffering is, in principle, a worthwhile diplomatic endeavor, in the end, any resolution must lead to neutralizing -- not preserving -- Hezbollah's militia capability.

I think I'm going to be sick to my stomach...


UPDATE:Israel confirmed on Friday that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had ordered the army to expand its ground offensive against Hizbollah in Lebanon but said the decision "does not exclude a diplomatic solution".

The move, announced by Israel's Foreign Ministry, came shortly after U.S. and British ambassadors at the United Nations said Security Cuncil members were on the verge of a deal on a resolution aimed at halting the month-old war.

Apparently Israel realized the colossal mistake the cease-fire agreement would have been.