Thursday, August 03, 2006

Civil War in Iraq?

Leaked memo: Civil war most likely outcome in Iraq

Outgoing British ambassador to Iraq also predicts the country will break up along sectarian lines.

The BBC reports that the confidential leaked memo also predicted the breakup of Iraq along ethnic lines into three separate countries. While "not hopeless," Mr. Patey wrote, it will remain a "difficult and messy" situation for the next five to ten years.

Patey wrote: "The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy.

"Even the lowered expectation of President Bush for Iraq – a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror – must remain in doubt."

I have been thinking this is probably inevitable myself.
Was this worth the loss of so many American lives?
I still believe that if we didn't take the war to the terrorist, there would have been more terrorist attacks here in United States.

4 Comments:

At 3:41 PM, Blogger Always On Watch said...

I've been thinking that civil war is inevitable. One can call it tribal warfare if one likes, but it comes to the same thing--a struggle for the dominant power.

Crusader,
I agree with you final statement here.

 
At 6:39 PM, Blogger MissingLink said...

If you ask me the splitting of Iraq is long overdue.

Was this worth the loss of so many American lives?

This is a question that nobody can honestly answer.
The choice was to do something or do nothing.
It would've worked out differently if instead of 'extremism' we identified Islam as a reason for the ongoing problems; - disfunctional societies and communities, inability of Muslim countries to create sustainable economies, vilolent, primitive ethics (lack of them) etc.
As our elites insisted that Islam is a religion of piece they got themselves into trouble.
Iraqi constitution states clearly now that no law in this 'country' can be in any conflict with Islam and Islamic law.
De facto Sharia.

At this stage I'd say some policy change should be undertaken.

I mean, it is easy to criticize somebody for trying to actually do something.
In fact, it is the lack of action, which is most damaging.
When the Iraqi war was just about to erupt I thought the goal to change at least one Islamic state into a role model for the rest of the Islamic world to see, wouldn't be a bad idea.
Soon after I asked myself: What happens to the ownership of the oil fields?
I still don't really know that because the media is not asking these kind of questions.
The Iraqi economy was state owned and controlled before this war.
Have we changed this?
If 'we' have - who actually owns the land, oil fields etc?
Masses of passive, apathetic people, whithout any means to support themselves but to beg for handouts will follow those who offer the proverbial carrot.
Even with free elections Islam wins and then who cares about the free elections.

 
At 6:02 AM, Blogger American Crusader said...

Lots of good questions Felix. I believe the oil fields are still in possession of the government with the understanding that a percentage of the profits will go for schools, hospitals and other needed areas. If Iraq does break up, I'm sure that some type of agreement on profit-sharing would have to be part of it or else civil strife will continue indefinitely

 
At 3:58 PM, Blogger MissingLink said...

Crusader,
I believe the oil fields are still in possession of the government with the understanding that a percentage of the profits will go for schools, hospitals and other needed areas.

So in fact not much has changed since Sadlam's socialist economy.
Just a bigger rulling elite to skim the system.

Much more time should be spent on working out a way to involve as many people as possible in getting rich and prosperous.
AK 47 doesn't look very attractive when the folk is busy getting richer.
Additionally the current Iraqi constitution promissed bigger share from future oild profit to those groups, which were disadvantaged under Saddam.
This was a trigger to massive surge in Suni's resistance.
Now, how would it look now to say, will start again from the beginning?

 

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