North Korea Raises the Stakes

N. Korea Threatens to Fire Nuclear Missile if U.S. Won't Commit to Talks

Fox News: SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea stepped up its threats aimed at Washington, saying it could fire a nuclear-tipped missile unless the United States acts to resolve its standoff with Pyongyang, the Yonhap news agency reported Tuesday from Beijing.

Even if Pyongyang is confirmed to have nuclear weapons, experts say it's unlikely the North has a bomb design small and light enough to be mounted atop a missile. Their long-range missile capability also remains in question, after a test rocket in July apparently fizzled out shortly after takeoff.

"We hope the situation will be resolved before an unfortunate incident of us firing a nuclear missile comes," Yonhap quoted an unidentified North Korean official as saying. "That depends on how the U.S. will act."

Even if this is an empty threat, N. Korea has proven itself willing to continually raise the stakes with their nuclear threats. How far are they willing to go?

China caught in the middle

Unlike times in the past, China has come out in favor of UN actions against North Korea including economic sanctions. It has ruled out military action claiming it to be "unimaginable" but China was embarrassed when N. Korea went ahead and test fired a nuclear device despite China's strong objections.

BBC: A North Korean nuclear test has long been a nightmare scenario for China.

Beijing is one of the North's few remaining allies, and a major supplier of energy and financial aid to the secretive regime in Pyongyang.

China wants stability on the Korean peninsula; the last thing it wanted was an international crisis right on its doorstep.

It has condemned the claimed test on Monday, saying it resolutely opposes North Korea's actions, and that the test has damaged relations between the two countries.

That anger is also mixed with embarrassment, because Beijing repeatedly urged the
North Koreans to abandon their plans for a test.


The fact that the North went ahead regardless appears to be an indication that there are limits to the influence that China's leaders have in Pyongyang.

Balancing act

But the situation is more complex than that. China fears that if it uses what leverage it does have, by stopping aid to North Korea, the regime in Pyongyang might collapse.

That could send a flood of refugees over the border into China - something that Beijing wants to avoid at all costs.

Is Iran studying North Korea's nuclear moves?

North Korea may be going into uncharted waters but Iran is carefully watching events unfold as they prepares their own playbook.

For each of the besieged regimes, experts say, an underlying goal is to establish a level of international respect, especially in relations with Washington. To help achieve this, these experts say, the powers of Tehran are no doubt studying the more experienced Kim Jong Il for dos and don'ts, and vice versa.

"Not only do they watch each other, but they may indeed compare notes," says Jonathan Pollack, a North Korea expert at the Naval War College in Newport, R.I. Noting that North Korea has supplied Iran with missiles and other technology, he adds, "The North Koreans do have certain on again, off again relations with Iran, so they may do more than just study each other's experiences."

I wouldn't be surprised if Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other hard-liners in the regime say, "Why do we back down at the last minute, when you look at the North Koreans and see that they make a threat and carry through - and on the whole that has not been a losing approach for them?"