Islamic Russia in our Lifetime

THE COMING MUSLIM MAJORITY: On February 28, Russia expert PAUL GOBLE, vice dean of social sciences and humanities at Concordia-Audentes University in Tallinn, Estonia, gave a briefing at RFE/RL's Washington office. Goble said ethographers predict Russia will have a Muslim majority "within our lifetime."

Since 1989, Russia's Muslim population has increased by 40 percent, Goble said, rising to some 25 million self-declared Muslims. He said 2.5 million to 3.5 million Muslims now live in Moscow, gving Moscow the largest Muslim population of any city in Europe. Russia today has more than 8,000 mosques, up from just 300 in 1991. By 2010, experts predict, some 40 percent of Russian military conscripts will be Muslims.

Goble noted that these changes have been accompanied by a "rising tide" of anti-Muslim prejudice. Public-opinion surveys reveal that up to "70 percent of ethnic Russians" express sympathy with xenophobic slogans. Goble warned that heavy-handed state efforts to "contain Islam" could backfire and cause groups to move underground, "radicalizing people who are not yet radicalized."

"We underestimate the danger and know we are losing," the special-forces hero of the hit Russian television broadcast "Anti-Killer" told a colleague in a recent episode. "We are losing because we are at work -- and they are at war."

Islam -- The New Marxism

Delyagin, director of the Institute of Globalization and a former adviser to Russian prime ministers Mikhail Kasyanov and Yevgeny Primakov, offered two explanations for why Slavic nationals might be attracted to radical Islam. Islam, he says, now plays the role that Marxism did during the Soviet era. Marxism once offered young people a sense that they were contributing to a universal ideal, and in many ways Islam is playing that role now. Also, Delyagin argues that Islam provides a feeling of transcendence over everyday life -- filling another void left by the collapse of Marxism.

In short, militant Islam may provide Slavic converts a feeling of purpose they find lacking in modern society or in the teachings of traditional Christianity.

The expansion of radical Islam poses a serious challenge for Russian security agencies, and this problem is compounded by the activities of Slavic converts as terrorist activity spreads increasingly from Chechnya and the North Caucasus to Moscow and other Russian cities.

And the Kremlin does no know how to confront this threat.